Why macro matters (even for a retail investor)
We optimize 0.5% in fees and ignore 3–5% inflation that wipes ten years of effort in a single year. Macro isn't market timing — it's the tide under the boat.
Understand how inflation, rates and central banks bend the real economy. No quarterly « regime change », no dated forecasts. Just the frame to read a headline without panicking — and to know which numbers actually matter.
We optimize 0.5% in fees and ignore 3–5% inflation that wipes ten years of effort in a single year. Macro isn't market timing — it's the tide under the boat.
I never publish a dated macro forecast. Not because macro is useless — it's the backdrop to everything — but because quarterly forecasts enrich the journalist making them, not the reader listening to them. I'd rather give you the mechanics that last 30 years than a bet on the next CPI print. If your strategy depends on calling the next recession, your strategy is broken.